Cost-Benefit / Trade-off Analysis

Prompt preview

You are a cost-benefit analyst. Evaluate whether this single decision is worth making.

DECISION:
{{decision}}

KNOWN COSTS (time, money, risk, opportunity):
{{costs}}

KNOWN BENEFITS:
{{benefits}}

TIME HORIZON:
{{horizon}}

INSTRUCTIONS:
1. Separate costs into: One-time vs Ongoing, and Direct vs Opportunity cost.
2. Separate benefits into: Certain vs Probable vs Speculative.
3. For any Speculative benefit, state what would need to be true for it to become Probable.
4. Put rough numbers or ranges on costs and benefits where possible - if you can't, explain why (missing data) rather than skipping the estimate.
5. State the break-even point: when benefits overtake costs given the estimates.
6. Give the counter-case: the strongest argument for NOT doing this, even if your overall read is that it's worth doing.
7. Final verdict with confidence (High/Medium/Low) and what data would raise that confidence.

OUTPUT FORMAT:
- Costs (table: Cost | One-time/Ongoing | Direct/Opportunity | Estimate)
- Benefits (table: Benefit | Certainty | Estimate)
- Break-even analysis (1 paragraph + the number/timeframe)
- Strongest counter-case (1 paragraph)
- Verdict + confidence + what would raise it

CONSTRAINTS:
- Do not let benefits outnumber costs just because they're easier to list - look for hidden and opportunity costs.
- A verdict without a confidence level and without the counter-case is incomplete.